Port Melbourne heads the largest field of clubs for more than a decade into the home straight of the 2014 VFL home and away season.
The Borough is clearly the club the others have to beat, but they don’t award any medallions or flags in early August.
Not only is there the scramble for clubs to make the eight - Frankston is still a mathematical chance after stringing three successive wins - but also the jostling for positions, particularly at the top end of the ladder.
It makes the final month of the home and away season very interesting.
Here’s a snapshot of the race into the finals, club by club:
PORT MELBOURNE
Position: First
Win/Loss: 12-2
Percentage: 137.78
What's happened so far:
After surging from the starting gates, Port Melbourne has retained the position as the clear front runner, the club others have to catch in this season’s premiership race. The Borough won its first seven games, had its winning streak snapped by Geelong at the spacious Simonds Stadium then encountered a reality check when Footscray thumped them by six goals at the North Port Oval, a fortress during Gary Ayres reign as coach.
Port Melbourne has responded in stunning style winning its next five games in emphatic fashion with the match against Essendon - a three point win - the only match that wasn’t won by 29-points or greater. Admittedly, they were against clubs not in the eight, but that’s how good clubs roll.
Likely scenario:
With a one and a half game break on its nearest rival Box Hill Hawks, and a favourable run home, it is hard to imagine Port Melbourne not finishing on top of the ladder. And, that brings with it a home final. While the venues for the first week of the finals haven’t been locked away, the Borough’s performance this season deserves a home final - and that’s a daunting prospect for any would-be finalist. Port Melbourne is well poised for a 17th flag.
Who's ahead: Werribee (away), Casey (home), Northern Blues (away), North Ballarat (home)
BOX HILL HAWKS
Position: Second
Win/Loss: 10-3-1
Percentage: 135.6
What's happened so far:
Box Hill Hawks have certainly given themselves every opportunity to post a club first - back-to-back premierships. The VFL Hawks could easily mount a case they could be undefeated this season. Inexplicably they drew with Sandringham and its three defeats have been two points (North Ballarat), three points (Essendon) and seven points (Port Melbourne).
Certainly, Box Hill Hawks have capitalised on the remarkable depth of affiliate Hawthorn - Hawthorn premiership player David Hale has played a couple of games, so too Brian Lake, while Kyle Cheyney, Ben Ross, Mitch Hallahan and Billy Hartung are staples of Box Hill Hawks success.
Likely scenario:
With a favorable run home it is hard to imagine Box Hill Hawks dropping out of the top four, but just where the VFL Hawks will launch its premiership defence from remains uncertain. It’s unlikely that Box Hill Hawks will reel in Port Melbourne, which holds a one and a half game buffer over them. Conversely, Box Hill Hawks can ill afford to take its foot off the accelerator as Footscray and Williamstown are just a half game behind them.
Who's ahead: Collingwood (away), Frankston (away), Bendigo (home), Northern Blues (home)
FOOTSCRAY
Position: Third
Win/Loss: 10-4
Percentage: 151.3
What's happened so far:
Footscray will definitely play finals in its first season as a standalone club and, barring an unforeseen collapse, should occupy a top four position. Apart from a couple of aberrations - a two point loss to North Ballarat and a 41-point drubbing by Williamstown - Footscray has been an impressive a team as any of the top four clubs.
The VFL Dogs belted ladder Port Melbourne away by six goals and not too many, if any club has done that to the Borough during the Gary Ayres reign. Footscray, superbly led by Nick Lower, Brent Prismall and Jordan Russell, also toyed with Essendon (53), Geelong (52) and Collingwood (45) and that was after thrashing Bendigo (166) and Richmond (117) earlier in the season. The Dogs continually apply scoreboard pressure, they’ve kicked a century score line eight times while only conceding the one.
Likely scenario:
Just how far Footscray travels in the finals will depend on the eligibility and availability of its AFL listed players. For much of the season it’s been a revolving door between the AFL and VFL as the Western Bulldogs have searched repeatedly for a mix of players that not only will make them competitive, but also a group that will finally take the club forward.
Consequently, many of the players that have helped the Dogs become such a strong combination may find themselves not having played enough games to qualify in the finals. Also, with the Bulldogs not in the AFL finals the temptation is always there for the coaching staff to decide to close some players down for the season.
Who's ahead: Bendigo (home), Werribee (away), Casey (HG), Richmond (away)
WILLIAMSTOWN
Position: Fourth
Win/Loss: 10-4
Percentage: 132.3
What's happened so far:
Williamstown has dis-spelled any queries over its ability to be competitive in its first season as a standalone club. The Seagulls, in its first season under Andy Collins, will not only play finals, but will play a meaningful role in who will win the premiership. It could quite easily be the Seagulls.
Arch rival Port Melbourne defeated them as did reigning premiers Box Hill Hawks twice, but both games were in the balance in the last term. Williamstown smashed Footscray earlier in the season and they’ve defeated all the other clubs in the eight they’ve played. Williamstown’s 150th anniversary has already been a memorable year, but who’s to say the biggest celebration is yet to come.
Likely scenario:
Williamstown should seal a top four finish given they only play one other top eight club (North Ballarat) in the run into the finals. It’s hard to imagine they would drop any of their last four games. And, if that scenario plays out they could easily climb as high as second, as current second-placed Box Hill Hawks is only a half-game ahead of them.
Who's ahead: Essendon (away), Northern Blues (home), North Ballarat (away), Sandringham (away)
WERRIBEE
Position: Fifth
Win/Loss: 9-5
Percentage: 130.9
What's happened:
John Lamont will take Werribee into the finals in his first year as coach and the club will make its fourth successive finals appearance. Werribee’s record could easily be better. With a slice of luck they could have already nailed down a top four spot, but for a one point loss to Essendon and a nine-point loss to Williamstown.
But narrow defeats have been traded off with close wins against Casey (five points) and Geelong (nine). Werribee has won all its games its ladder position suggest it should have won, but it has lost to the three clubs ahead of it that its played - Port Melbourne, Box Hill Hawks and Williamstown (Footscray awaits in the run home).
Likely scenario:
While Werribee boasts a two game percentage buffer over those clubs scrambling to make the eight, the Tigers do face a tough couple of games - Port Melbourne and Footscray - before the finals. It would be hard to imagine either Sandringham and/or Frankston defeating them. But, for Werribee to have a realistic chance of winning its first premiership since Lamont was a member of the 1991 flag, the Tigers need to finish with a top four position.
For that to happen, several things need to occur. First and foremost, Werribee needs to post a win against the Borough or Dogs and defeat, as expected Sandringham and Frankston. If that doesn’t play out then it would need Box Hill Hawks and/or Williamstown to implode and that looks highly unlikely.
Who's ahead: Port Melbourne (home), Footscray (home), Sandringham (home), Frankston (away)
NORTH BALLARAT
Position: Sixth
Win/Loss: 8-6
Percentage: 116.5
What's happened:
one of, if not, the biggest surprise of the season has been the Roosters. Once again it underlines the extraordinary coaching skills of Gerard FitzGerald, who has taken a modestly talented list into the finals. Yes, the vagaries of the draw have helped and seemingly they’ve bumped into AFL standalone or aligned AFL clubs when they’re at their most vulnerable, but, that’s the rub of the green. Sometimes it works for you, other times it doesn’t.
While North Ballarat doesn’t play an attractive brand of football and rarely kicks a 100-point score line, that’s doesn’t concern FitzGerald or for that matter the players. They’ve kept the win column ticking over and that’s the bottom line.
Likely scenario:
While it’s highly unlikely North Ballarat will play a meaningful role in the premiership they will definitely play finals for the first time in three years. That’s an undeniable positive given no-one would have imagined the club to have been as successful without Messrs, Clifton, Driscoll and Sewell.
North Ballarat face a tough run home. They play competition power houses Port Melbourne and Williamstown for the first time in the last two rounds and they also host Geelong, who if they get close to full strength will cause the Roosters problems.
Who's ahead: Coburg (away), Geelong (home), Williamstown (home), Port Melbourne (home)
COLLINGWOOD
Position: Seventh
Win/Loss: 8-6
Percentage: 109.6
What's happened so far:
After setting up its season with six first half wins, Collingwood has struggled to gain any momentum in the second half and that’s a direct result of the injury woes endured by its AFL list. Collingwood’s only two second half wins have come against Richmond and Werribee.
Certainly, losses to Northern Blues and Frankston in its past three games have snuffed out their aspirations for a double chance. While Collingwood has always appeared likely to play finals, it has only beaten two clubs in the eight - Werribee and North Ballarat - and now it faces a fight to remain in the eight.
Likely scenario:
Collingwood faces a testing next three weeks as it comes up against Box Hill Hawks, Essendon and Geelong. The VFL Pies must win at least two of them to secure a finals berth. Although they finish off the season against Bendigo, Collingwood must bank wins before they play Bendigo or the last game of the season could well be a meaningless exercise.
Who's ahead: Box Hill Hawks (home), Essendon (home), Geelong (away), Bendigo (away)
GEELONG
Position: Eighth
Win/Loss: 7-7
Percentage: 113
What's happened so far:
Just as dominant as Geelong was last season, the Cats have been as inconsistent this season. Retirements and injuries to its seasoned, experienced VFL players coupled with injuries to its AFL list has left Geelong vulnerable.
It’s been a season that has ebbed and flowed - three wins from its first four games followed by three successive losses and then three more wins from its next four games. At its height, Geelong has inflicted wins over Port Melbourne, North Ballarat and a massive 129-point win against Sandringham in its most recent match. Frustratingly, the Cats have twice lost to 12-placed Richmond and such inconsistency has consigned them to a club that is playing .500 football.
Likely scenario:
Can Geelong rally to lock in a place in the finals? Certainly, the Cats have a favorable run home with its games against clubs all in close proximity to them on the ladder. Also, three of its remaining games are at Simonds Stadium with North Ballarat their only road trip. If Geelong can find some consistency and is able to field its best team it would surprise no one if they won all four games to make a late push for a top four finish. Geelong won’t be looking that far ahead. It needs to find enough consistency to win enough games to make the finals.
Who's ahead: Frankston (home), North Ballarat (away), Collingwood (home), Essendon (home)
NORTHERN BLUES
Position: Ninth
Win/Loss: 7-7
Percentage: 81
What's happened so far:
Several factors have defined Northern Blues season. Firstly, they have played in bursts - the VFL Blues won its first three games then dropped four in succession before again winning three in a row. They’ve won just one of its past four.
Northern Blues has been aided by winning five games by 12-points or less, but conversely they have copped four defeats by 40-points or more. And, they’ve been helped some telling cameos - Chris Judd and Jarrad Waite have played in winning Northern Blues teams, but it only helped the club to play .500 football.
Likely scenario:
While Northern Blues boast the same number of wins as eighth-placed Geelong and are outside on percentage (a massive 30 percentage points), they face an Everest-like climb to get into the eight. Apart from its coming match against the tame Scorpions, Northern Blues face three of the top four clubs in the competition - Port Melbourne, Box Hill Hawks and Williamstown. And, to compound the equation for Northern Blues its only game at home is against ladder-leader Port Melbourne. It shapes as a mountain too steep to climb.
Who's ahead: Casey (away), Williamstown (away), Port Melbourne (home), Box Hill Hawks (away)
ESSENDON
Position: Tenth
Win/Loss: 6-7-1
Percentage: 98
What's happened so far:
It’s been the proverbial roller coaster ride for Essendon, which has savored dizzy heights then just as suddenly endured ocean depths. Wins against Box Hill Hawks and Werribee have suggested the VFL Bombers are in fact not only legitimate finalists, but also worthy of a top four finish. Such discussion has been bolstered by running Port Melbourne to three goals and four points in its two meetings.
Inexplicably, such performances have been washed over by losses to Richmond and Sandringham and a draw against Frankston. The end result being that Essendon outside the eight, but still close enough to make a run for a final’s berth. It’s been that type of season.
Likely scenario:
Apart from Williamstown, Essendon meets clubs - Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong - that are clustered around them. If the Bombers reproduce the form that saw them defeat Box Hill Hawks and Werribee then they will win the necessary three games they require to take them back to the finals for a second consecutive season. It’s a big if, but with Essendon you just never know what to expect.
Who's ahead: Williamstown (HG), Collingwood (away), Richmond (HG), Geelong (away)
SANDRINGHAM
Position: 11th
Win/Loss: 6-7-1
Percentage: 92
What's happened so far:
What started out positively appears destined to fizzle out into yet another disappointing season for Sandringham. The Zebras charged from the gates winning four of its first five games with its other match ending in a draw against Box Hill Hawks.
Such a frenetic start gave rise to much optimism that Sandringham would play a significant role in the finals. Unfortunately for Zebras’ fans there has only been two subsequent wins - and one of those was against the hapless Bendigo Gold - in the following nine matches.
Likely scenario:
While finals are still within its grasp, Sandringham must somehow turn around its recent fortunes, most noticeably its latest performance which saw Geelong inflict a crushing 129-point win at the Trevor Barker Oval. If the Zebras can regain form, playing finals could still happen. The next two games against Richmond and Coburg are pivotal. Wins against both these clubs, situated below them on the ladder, are non-negotiable. If Sandringham doesn’t post victories in those matches, the games against Werribee and Williamstown will be redundant.
Who's ahead: Richmond (away), Coburg (home), Werribee (away), Williamstown (home)
RICHMOND
Position: Twelveth
Win/Loss: 5-8-1
Percentage: 81.8
What’s happened:
After recruiting extensively to provide a solid VFL foundation, Richmond’s return as a standalone AFL club has been disappointing to put it mildly. While the Tigers can mathematically still make the eight - they are one and a half games out - the truth of the matter is that they haven’t looked like a finals team at any point so far.
Apart from back-to-back wins against Casey and Geelong, Richmond has been unable to gain any momentum. And, what’s hard to fathom is that they’ve had the services for much of the season of plenty of Richmond listed players whose experience should have resulted in a far better score line.
Likely scenario:
For Richmond it is as simple as it is straight forward - they have to go on a four game winning streak and then get some help from other teams. Richmond can only control their side of that equation and while their run home is favourable from what we’ve seen so far playing finals is not going to happen this season.
Who’s ahead: Sandringham (home), Bendigo (away), Essendon (HG), Footscray (home).
FRANKSTON
Position: Thirteenth
Win/Loss: 4-8-2
Percentage: 85.2
What’s happened:
Frankston has given itself the faintest of hopes of playing finals after a dreadful start to the season, which saw them lose its first eight games. But, the Dolphins revived their season with a draw - remarkably it’s second of the season - followed by three successive wins.
Likely scenario:
As unlikely as it would have seemed a month ago, Frankston can still mathematically make the finals. Unlike other teams above them there is no wriggle room. They have to win its last four games and then rely on other results falling their way, but they will embrace that challenge with their confidence riding high after three successive wins.
Who’s ahead: Geelong (away), Box Hill Hawks (home), Coburg (away), Werribee (home)
Last Modified on 31/07/2014 21:42