The MSBL Run Home
With teams in the top eight battling for the best positions heading into next week's quarter-finals, the final round of the men's State Basketball League season is going to be thrilling. For an analysis of the complex tiebreaker scenarios and a prediction of the final ladder, check out the MSBL Run Home.
1. Lakeside Lightning (23-2) - The Run Home: Southwest (A). The Lightning have guaranteed another minor premiership, regardless of their result against the Slammers. Predicted finish: 24-2, 1st.
2. Wanneroo Wolves (18-7) - The Run Home: Stirling (A). The Wolves hold the tiebreaker over Cockburn so will finish second even if they lose to the Senators. Predicted finish: 19-7, 2nd.
3. Cockburn Cougars (17-8) - The Run Home: Mandurah (H). Beat the Magic and Cockburn finishes third. But if they lose and the Hawks win, the Cougars will slip to fourth. Predicted finish: 18-8, 3rd.
4. Total Connections Perry Lakes Hawks (16-9) - The Run Home: Mandurah (A). Victory against the Magic will guarantee the Hawks a top four spot. If they lose, they hold the tiebreaker over Willetton so will stay above them, but East Perth has the head-to-head advantage, so the Hawks could still fall out of the top four. Predicted finish: 17-9, 4th.
5. Southlands Boulevarde Willetton Tigers (15-10) - The Run Home: East Perth (A). The defending champions can't finish in the top four regardless of their result against the Eagles, but defeat could see them drop down the ladder. Predicted finish: 15-11, 6th.
6. Australian Central East Perth Eagles (14-10) - The Run Home: Willetton (H), Perth (A). Win both and the Eagles could finish as high as fourth, if the Hawks lose to Mandurah. If they win one of two, it sets up a potentially thrilling tiebreaker scenario, which is hard to predict as two of the teams they could be battling with - Perth and Willetton - are their opponents this weekend. Predicted finish: 15-11, 5th.
7. Perth Redbacks (14-11) - The Run Home: East Perth (H). The Redbacks are in impressive form and could finish in the top six if they beat the Eagles. If Willetton, East Perth and Perth all finish 15-11, all three teams would also finish 2-2 on the three-way tiebreaker. On the point differential within the tiebreaker, Willetton heads in at +4 while Perth is -3 and East Perth -1. It's almost impossible to predict how this scenario will play out, but if any of the results this weekend are a blowout, it will change things massively. Predicted finish: 15-11, 7th.
8. ATD Stirling Senators (14-11) - The Run Home: Wanneroo (H). The Senators could join an incredible four-way tiebreaker if they beat the Wolves, but that seems unlikely. If both Stirling and Perth finish 14-12, Perth holds the tiebreaker and Stirling would finish eighth. Predicted finish: 14-12, 8th.
9. SKILLED Goldfields Giants (11-14) - The Run Home: Rockingham (H). The Giants' finals hopes are over and they can put that down to a poor second half of the season. They'll finish 9th if they beat the Flames though. Predicted finish: 12-14, 9th.
10. Kalamunda Eastern Suns (10-15) - The Run Home: Geraldton (A). With Kalamunda's finals hopes over, they have little more to play for than pride in Geraldton. Predicted finish: 10-16, 10th.
11. Sun City Plumbing Geraldton Buccaneers (8-17) - The Run Home: Kalamunda (H). The Buccs wrap up a disappointing season at home against the Suns but have been in improved form lately and will be keen to wrap up their season on a high. Predicted finish: 9-17, 11th.
12. Mandurah Magic (7-17) - The Run Home: Perry Lakes (H), Cockburn (A). The Flames hold the tiebreaker over the Magic, so Mandurah will finish 13th unless it beats the Hawks or Cougars. Predicted finish: 7-19, 13th.
13. Rockingham Flames (7-18) - The Run Home: Goldfields (A). It was a rare win for Rockingham last week but it's hard to see them picking up another in Kalgoorlie. Predicted finish: 7-19, 12th.
14. Southwest Slammers (0-25) - The Run Home: Lakeside (H). The Slammers are going to finish the wooden spoon by a huge margin and unless they can cause the biggest upset in SBL history, they'll be winless too. Predicted finish: 0-26, 14th.
Article by Jacob Kagi
Photo by Mick Cronin
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