We’ve hit that time of the year where players, coaches and fans get those nervous butterflies in anticipation of their march to a finals campaign. Every game becomes season defining, every possession is paramount and there is that added pressure come late in the 4th quarter when scores are tight.

Which teams will step up to the challenge and make a run at the championship? Which teams will crumble and fall victim to the pressure of playing on the big stage? This week the Scoop will try and predict who will win the first round finals match-ups, and which teams are a serious contender for the title in season 2011.

There are a lot of different aspects that come into play once we hit the finals and can influence the result in one way or another – let’s take a closer look at a few of those key aspects:

• Finals/Championship experience - is one of those intangibles that become very important, especially in a pressure situation like game 3 or overtime. Players that have experienced the highly intense and pressurised environment of finals basketball definitely have a slight edge over an inexperienced counterpart.
• Health/Injuries – Being fresh and injury free is as important as chemistry come this stage of the season. Which teams manage their players well and which coaches keep their teams fresh for a run at the finals?
• Form – It is always important to have some sort of form, and finals are not the time to hit a form slump. Current form lines and regular season results against your current finals opponent will be very telling for players and coach’s mental toughness when entering into a series.
• Home Court advantage – This is an interesting subject with our current finals setup. With the first game of the 3 game series being played on the home court of the lower ranked team, it makes it very tough for the higher ranked team to win 2 in a row, even if these games are on their home court. Now you always want 2 home games in a 3 game finals series, but is it really a home court advantage if you drop the first game away from home? I think it is a contentious issue and no team wants to go into a finals series with the first game away in my opinion. The flip side is that if you win game 1 away from home, you are a ‘Monty’ to make it into the second round unless you fold like a cheap suit under the pressure.
• Leadership – A very important component of success especially in the march to the finals. Every team has their leaders on the court; will they continue to successfully step up and lead throughout the finals? Leadership from a coaching stand point is also vital.
• Creativity – The ability to create a good look towards the end of a shot clock is paramount, especially with tighter defences that are better prepared. The ability to make the necessary adjustments throughout the game and throughout the series, with each team spending a lot of time scouting their opponents. This comes down to the prowess of the coaching staff, and whether they can make the tough calls to abandon what isn’t working and take a new approach to the game.
• Defined roles – Which players are happy to sacrifice their individual game for the benefit of the team? This could be in the form of taking on a huge defensive assignment to the detriment of their offensive game, or being happy to step down and take on fewer minutes if a match up doesn’t suit or their form is suffering.
• Execution/looking after the ball – The finals generally turns into a half court, defensive and strategic game. The team’s which execute the best, look after the basketball and takes care of the defensive glass will get the upper hand. Which teams in our league are the best at executing in their half court sets?

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All of above mentioned aspects can have an impact on the eventual game or series result. The big question is - Which teams will do these things better than their finals opponent? Let’s take a look at the first round finals match-ups:

Lakeside Lightning (1st) v East Perth Eagles (8th)
Regular Season Results 
Lakeside 118 – East Perth 97 (Lakeside home game) 
Lakeside 100 – East Perth 93 (East Perth home game)

Lakeside’s 16 game winning streak definitely implies they have the edge over their 8th placed opponent. They have executed better than all other teams this season and their 48 minutes of defensive pressure will be too much for East Perth to handle. The overtime loss to the Redbacks on the weekend could prove to be a very costly loss for East Perth, who slipped to 8th on the ladder and as a result face the league’s powerhouse club in the quarters. I had East Perth as my best smokey to go to the Grand Final and potentially cause an upset, but now I have them up the proverbial creek without a paddle. The Williamson v Payne matchup will be an interesting one, and I will be down at East Perth on Friday night hoping that both sharpshooters go off for 40.
Prediction: Lakeside to win series 2 – 0

Wanneroo Wolves (2nd) v Willetton Tigers (7th)
Regular Season Results
Willetton 100 – Wanneroo 88 (Willetton home game)
Wanneroo 140 – Willetton 76 (Wanneroo home game)

The big question is will Tovey play? I’m sure the lads down at the Wolfpack are hoping not as Tovey changes the complexion of this series if he suites up. The Wolves have a notoriously bad record playing in Willetton, however their recent 64 point flogging of the Tigers in round 15 would no doubt have them very confident of taking out this series in two games. The recent run of poor form from Willetton do not stand them in good stead coming into this tough quarter finals series, the only thing they have going for them is that the Wolfpack haven’t been overly impressive either losing 3 of their last 4 games of the season.
Prediction: Wanneroo to win series 2-0

Cockburn Cougars (3rd) v Perth Redbacks (6th)
Regular Season Results
Cockburn 109 – Perth 99 (Cockburn home game)
Perth 92 – Cockburn 83 (Perth home game)

The Redbacks have come into some form of late winning their last 6 games, including an impressive win against a tough East Perth outfit on the weekend without the likes of Wagstaff and Maddox. The Cougars have been impressive all season and their import combination of Ocitti and Harrelson will need containing if Perth is to have any chance of winning this series. Probably the toughest quarter final match-up to predict as both teams have very good home court advantages. In the end I think the two games played in a shed at Cockburn will be the difference, along with the fact that the Redbacks haven’t played any defence since Coach Harris ran the shell drill one training session back in 2010.
Prediction: Cockburn to win series 2-1

Perry Lakes Hawks (4th) v Stirling Senators (5th)
Perry Lakes 111 – Stirling 93 (Stirling home game)
Stirling 118 – Perry Lakes 100 (Perry Lakes home game)

Anthony Lee v Stirling Senators? Lee has got the job done all season for the Hawks and I’ll fall off my chair if he doesn’t win the MVP this season. This is a dangerous series for the Hawks as Stirling are on a roll after knocking off the Wolfpack on the weekend, inevitably shifting them up the ladder into 5th position. Led by captain Dodd, who must be allergic to pine (as he hasn’t seen a minute on the bench since they subbed 5 on and 5 off in little league) the Senators have added some excellent pieces in 2011, in particularly their import combination of Jones and Roberts. Lee Roberts has been a revelation and since entering the league he has turned the Stirling fixture into a danger game for all opponents. This series could go either way, but I am predicting Stirling to take game 1 at home, making it very tough for the Hawks to win two in a row.
Prediction: Stirling to win series 2-1

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Will we see the favourites make it through comfortably into the semi-finals? Will we see some upsets in the opening round? One thing is certain; there will be plenty of good basketball getting played over the next few weeks in the SBL, so make your way down to support your team and be a part of the exciting action.

Who do you think will win the quarter final match ups? Comment via our official Facebook and Twitter pages.

Article written by Mark Shipley