Konstantin Zoric: Early season thoughts

Hi All,

So two and a half rounds into the season and it is already shaping up to be an incredibly exciting 2013. Some quick observations:

  • The parity in the league is unprecedented, unless the match up has the words East Perth Eagles in it anybody could win on the night. After two full rounds no team has won the back end of a double header (with Magic being the biggest benefactors so far in playing shallow Lightning and Hawks teams after being softened up on the Friday night), it looks like scheduling will be a far bigger factor than in previous seasons and I plan on writing more on this topic in the future.
  • The Flames are going to struggle far more than I wanted to admit until Cannon arrives and their roster stabilises. In such an even year this is playing with fire and they could find themselves needing to win a big chunk of their last six or eight games to be in a reasonable position come finals. I still repeat - they will be tough come finals with Tucker, Cannon, Garbin, Hargreaves, Bourne, Bourne and Ware.
  • Did Coach Alava already hint at chemistry issues within the Wolfpack on the Monday night SBL radio show? Anybody who has seen True Blood season four or Teen Wolf season two knows this could be a major disruption!!! Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but it could be a long season in Wanneroo if issues are bubbling away already.
  • The Lightning women can play great on their night, like beating the Tigers on the road, but don't have the depth needed for double headers or the finals. I know everyone likes to bang on about how wonderful their program is but evidence doesn't support that - imagine that team if you took Beran and Stoneking (imports) and Johnson (South Australia) out, what's left? Van Schie, Byrnes and Fielding. So basically the only player Lightning have produced is Byrnes with young Ashley Grant coming through with promise.
  • Hawks v Flames this weekend should be a great game, both teams are strong inside but the Flames are at home and are stronger in the guard spots. A very unlucky coach CJ to be 0-4 and staring out of big hole for the team to come back from.
  • The Senators showed they are serious by dismantling the Eastern Suns last Saturday night. They also have a really nice blend of experience and youth and a top notch import in TL-W (Taylor Lilley-Wild). I may have to take back what I wrote about Coach Ellis earlier, he has them playing hard and the horns system works perfectly with their personnel.

Speaking of Stirling and imports I got thisl in the mailbag:

"You wrote that the two imports for the stirling senators are "decent". You obviously don't know much about Taylor Lilley Wild. She will probably be the best 3 point shooter in the league. She holds most records for 3 point shooting in the USA. Last year was league MVP in Australia.
-Anonymous"

Fair call indeed, I hadn't seen her in person (and perhaps could work google a little better) but am super impressed by what I've seen now! I think later in the season when we've seen almost everyone go at it we will be able to have an in depth look at all the imports and how they rank.

Back to the present and my random thought for this week - imagine if the SBL/WSBL had a mechanism to trade players like the NBA and some leagues in Europe, what teams would be in the market and who would be up for grabs. Let's look team by team but keep imports out of the market, assuming they are one year rentals and coaches were smart and actually bought in someone at a position they have a need.

Slammers - Balanced line-up across the board and wouldn't want to get in the market. I've mentioned her before but I would definitely make a trade offer for Wallam.

Magic - Casey Milo would be a trade target and you could imagine a few teams close to being a contender would covet her as the final piece. With Magic effectively rebuilding would they let her go for a package of good young players? Probably not, but a few clubs would make an offer - See Senators.

Flames - Flooded in the post position and short on the perimeter. Would have to be evaluating their line-up. That puts Tucker and Garbin up for consideration, Tucker is the captain and helps with some ball handling but is also nearly 30. Garbin is only 18 and can play for years to come, assuming the player they get back helps on the perimeter then I would keep her and trade Tucker. It would be a bit of a risk because Garbin's WNBL career could effect availability and also make her a restricted player for the next five or six seasons.

Cougars - While I quite like their line-up I don't see anyone people would chase or a position they would need to balance. Possibly could look for some more speed as their guards are a little slow excluding Priestley.

Lightning - Young Ashley Grant definitely has some long term potential but doesn't really fit with the rest of their program. She is someone a rebuilding team might offer a more senior player for. Teams would enquire about Johnson as she's probably the best PG in the league, but the only teams that could ship back multiple guards to give Lightning depth are the Eastern Suns and Wolves, and they have Jones and Amos already. Perhaps a Johnson for D'Arcy and Lee swap?

Tigers - Napier, Marsh would be untouchable and Edmonson and Wallbutton are imports. You can imagine that they would consider any offers for Lobb, Kennedy and Doyle, these girls have been around and could be handy in certain situations but haven't really proven effective at Tigers. Stear is a very handy shooter that knows how to play.

Eastern Suns - Lots of guards and a little short in depth at the 4 and 5 spot. You can imagine they would value Jones, Moyle and Edwards as untouchable but could package together a few guards to attract another quality player with size and free up Moyle and Buckley to play perimeter.

Redbacks - Payne would be highly sort after by other clubs but doubtful they would give her up as they would really struggle unless they were getting another dominant big back. Jakens would have some value as a young player other clubs could build around.

Eagles - Even the trade market couldn't save them, but a few teams might like the look of Jorre St Jorre or Cooke to play reserve roles. Hard to imagine who though, maybe the aforementioned Eastern Suns for Cooke or Jorre to Lightning for extra depth.

Senators - It's hard to imagine their senior players attracting much interest, but Throns, Roscoe and Dennis definitely would. Three young, long, athletic bodies that have huge upside and long careers. Stirling could offer two of these girls for Milo and would immediately be a grand final threat and Magic would be better off long term.

Hawks - Burton would be untouchable but Tobin, C Boyanich and R Boyanich are bigs that would draw some interest. They definitely need to get some depth on the perimeter and shooting the three ball, if I were them I would be burning up the phone lines to see if I could find a deal that would return multiple guards for any of these three players.

Wolves - Saved the most interesting to last and they would probably be the hardest club to negotiate with, nobody loves to overrate their teams and players more than Wolves. They would not negotiate with their starting five, but Coach V already confesses they have too many players so you know they would drop two or three for a great player back. I would imagine they would at least field offers on D'Arcy, Kerr, Lee, Perrett and S Johnson.

At the end of the day, my favourite hypothetical trades are:

  1. Johnson (Lightning) for D'Arcy and Lee (Wolves). Lightning become 8 or 9 deep and Wolves get a magnificent guard to play back up to or alongside Amos. 
  2. Mihovilovich (Magic) for Throns and Dennis (Senators). Senators become LEGIT right now, image a TL-W and Milo backcourt and Magic have two young studs to pair with Sidebottom and guarantee they are decent next year and great the year after.

Well thats enough food for thought from me for another week. Keep the emails coming in, I'm not precious and it would be great to get your views, share some ideas, keep the league interesting and let me know if you have got any potential trades I've missed.

KZ

Email Konstantine Zoric at sbl@basketballwa.asn.au and we'll pass the emails on.

The opinions, views and comments in this article are those of the individual and are not the opinions or views of the State Basketball League or Basketball WA.

Photo by Seren Maisey (Serene Elise Photography)




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