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Snakes and Ladders, Schedules and Power Rankings

Snakes and ladders, childhood memories there, am I the only board game nerd who loved that as a kid?

Welcome to my blog page as part of the SBL Slam radio show which airs every Monday nights 9pm on 98.5 Sonshine FM. In the first edition of this show there was a little discussion about the sample size of the season so far, the strengths of schedules, availability of player’s so far and if Hawks and Magic’s early season form is representative of how competitive they will be in the finals.

It got me wondering how to measure the toughness of schedule for each team to date and being a bit of a maths nerd (personal note - I’ve called myself a that twice in four sentences, if the cap fits I guess) I am going to use a basic formula. Using the current ladder I have totalled it up for each team using the ladder position of their opponents. So if you played Flames last week they sit in top spot so you get 1 for that match-up, I have averaged it for the number of games which means the teams with the lowest average score have played the toughest schedules to date. A simple way to look at it is the resulting number is the average ladder position (after this round) of opponents played so far.

How the Schedules To-Date Compare (Toughest to Weakest):

1. Kalamunda Eastern Suns =(3+4+6+7+1)/5 = 4.20
2. East Perth Eagles = (5+1+6+2+7+8+2+3)/8 = 4.25
3. Lakeside Lightning = (7+6+8+2+3+1+5)/7 = 4.57
4. Stirling Senators = (8+7+3+6+4+5)/6 = 5.50
5. Cockburn Cougars = (12+5+10+2+11+1+9+4+3)/9 = 6.33
6. Perth Redbacks = (10+11+1+3+12+4)/6 = 6.83
7. South West Slammers = (12+11+10+9+3+4+1+5)/8 = 6.88
8. Perry Lakes Hawks = (11+7+3+1+10+12+6)/7 = 7.14
9. Joondalup Wolves = (2+9+11+6+8+7)/6 = 7.17
10. Rockingham Flames = (11+8+7+5+12+6+9)/7 = 8.28
11. Mandurah Magic = (9+10+5+9+6+12+11+7)/8 = 8.63
12. Willetton Tigers = (4+11+7+12+11)/5 = 9.00

So after doing the sums this nearly turns the ladder upside down. Now I know it’s not a perfect formula, a team’s positioning biases their results, the top teams schedule will always appears lighter than it is because they push everyone else in the league downwards, and conversely the bottom teams schedule appears more difficult because everyone else sits above them. But this still isn’t enough to show a scoring variation of 4.20 to 9.00 and there are some teams that clearly look out of place. Take Willetton for example, their round one win over Wolves was good but after that they haven’t played any opposition that tests them yet. Flames are another team that you know is strong because of their 2014 season and the number of players they return, but if you isolate the first six rounds they haven’t played any other top four opponents.

Suns have had the toughest schedules to date but it’s been pretty brutal for Eagles and Lightning also. Magic has had a softer run and combined with their long preseason it shows they might have trouble maintaining the current win percentage as the opposition gets more talented and catches up in season preparation.

What I looked at in the middle bracket is the variety of opposition. Redbacks, Slammers and Hawks have only had one match up between each other (Hawks over Slammers) so separating them at this stage is difficult, all they have really done is beat the teams they should and lose to the stronger teams, this highlights some of my reasoning for not predicting Hawks as a top four finisher in the buzzer beaters segment.

This shows where we have been but it made me curious where we are going over the next six weeks. Using the same formula this is how challenging the schedules rate:

Rounds 7 to 12 Schedules (Toughest to Weakest):

1. Perry Lakes Hawks = (8+2+4+9+2)/5 = 5.00 – If they can win three of these five games then they stay a top four chance. If they drop games against Redbacks or Suns (with imports) it will cement them in the fifth to eighth grouping.
2. Mandurah Magic = (1+4+2+12+6+7)/6 = 5.33 – Could lose their next three, should beat Lightning but the last two games against Slammers and Cougars will be very important for them.
3. Rockingham Flames = (3+10+4+2+8)/5 = 5.40 – Much tougher schedule with games against Magic, Wolves and Tigers in the next five. If they get through these unscathed they’ll be top of my power rankings.
4. Perth Redbacks = (5+2+9+11+7+6+1+4)/8 = 5.63 – Should beat Eagles, losses to Wolves, Flames and Tigers won’t hurt their season, but the games they must target are Hawks, Suns, Cougars, and Slammers to demonstrate they have really turned things around from 2014.
5. Willetton Tigers = (9+8+5+6+3+10+1+5)/8 = 5.88 – A lot of middle of the table teams here which they should be able to get wins against. The last 6 rounds of the season things must really toughen up for them. If they continue to win through it what perfect preparation for the finals.
6. South West Slammers = (7+2+8+3+10)/5 = 6.00 – Lost a key game to Hawks already, will have a chance against Magic but Redbacks and Cougars over the next two weeks are massive games.
7. Stirling Senators = (12+11+1+7+2+4+6)/7 = 6.14 – Huge double header this weekend against Lightning and Eagles, they become wooden spoon contenders if they lose either of these.
8. Kalamunda Eastern Suns = (4+2+12+8+5+7+11)/7 = 7.00 – A brutal double header this weekend with Wolves and Tigers, especially considering they have already played the toughest schedule of all to date. Lightens off a lot after that and they will need to get on a win streak quickly.
9. Lakeside Lightning = (10+9+8+3+11+4)/6 = 7.5 – Winless to date but they almost go in favourites against Senators and Eagles with the new post and would also give themselves a punchers chance against Suns and Redbacks.
10. Cockburn Cougars = (6+10+11+8+9+3)/6 = 7.83 –Pencil them in against Senators and Eagles, but if they lose all three games to Slammers, Redbacks and Suns who are positioned near them they will find themselves out of the top eight.
11. East Perth Eagles = (10+7+4+12+9)/5 = 8.4 – Lighter opposition and only 5 games in 6 weeks, this is their window to win a game or two otherwise I may have picked wrong by committing to them getting at least one W this season.
12. Joondalup Wolves = (9+3+1+5+11+10+12+8)/8 = 8.50 – If they don’t have any injury problems anything less than seven wins here would be considered disappointing for them. Flames in Rockingham is tough, and the game against Magic is dangerous for them but the motivation should be high to get back above them in the standings.

It will be interesting to see what transpires over the next six rounds and if there will be any correlation between the schedule changes and the shifts in ladder positions. The obvious flaw in this process is that it doesn’t account for whether games are home or away and how well each team does in these situations. I’m committing myself now to doing this experiment again after round 12 and hopefully I’ll work the maths to consider where games are played and remove the bias created by ladder positioning, I’m already excited visualising a big out of control excel spreadsheet with formulas, arrays, if statements and lots of colours. If there are any maths or spreadsheet people out there (yes that includes you Chelsea Burns) feel free to email me with suggestions.

Flipping the switch, taking the maths out of it and putting my coaches hat back on this is my Power Rankings of the WSBL. Many of you will be familiar with what these are but if you aren’t it’s effectively my ranking of how I see the teams competing for the championship, not the standings now, in a few weeks or even at the end of the season. I will include a brief(ish) explanation of my logic so here goes.

My 2015 Power Rankings:

1. Wanneroo Wolves – For me they stay on top. They lost to Tigers in round one but openers are always unpredictable, they have players in and out for parts of the regular season but they are supremely talented. The only roster in the league that ticks every box; they have ball handlers, scorers and pure shooters, perimeter defenders, forwards who can run the floor, strong inside bodies who can pick and roll or post, great rebounding, back-ups at every position and a captain who is widely regarded as one of the best leaders in the league. The challenge for them is finding the balance between inside and outside scoring and what plays to run to keep everybody satisfied. I have heard that Edmondson isn’t available in the finals with international duties but I don’t think Amos, Burns, Martin, Martin, Ironmonger and Mercer need the help anyway.
2. Rockingham Flames – The defending champions who haven’t lost a game in 2015 and they have the best player in the league over the past two seasons on their roster, many would probably put them in top spot. I just can’t, the line-up seems out of balance with the loss of Tucker and Coach Petrik doesn’t like to run Garbin at the four with another post. If they go small they maintain their running game and man to man offence but have weaknesses attacking zones and it takes Fletcher away from the role she played to perfection last season which was running the floor and guarding the oppositions best perimeter scorer on most nights. If they go tall they lose the fluidity of transition they have when the rebounder can push the dribble and make advance passes herself on most possessions, plus the high dribble hand off with the second big is far easier to defend. Will they go back to running some of the high on-ball screen offence they used from 2009 to 2012?
3. Willetton Tigers – What many people consider as the third contender for the championship this season and I agree. In the preseason I thought they were a little behind Flames and Wolves but they have done everything right so far this season and it’s hard to make a case against them. There is no questioning their inside presence at both ends, Tomlinson will lead the league in blocked shots, runs the floor well and is a handful offensive rebounding. Zoe Harper can come off the bench and play in intervals that allow her to be dominant and stay out of foul trouble. Wallbutton is another great rebounder at the four and shoots from the outside well enough to maintain floor spacing. I have a theory that their guards are vulnerable, Lakeside attempted to do this with pressure but not in the right way. Rushing a double team and four defenders into the back court repeatedly and conceding two on one scoring opportunities after one pass over the top didn’t bother the Tigers one bit. I think the team that cuts off the right hands of Malpass, Antonio, Kelley and Napier, the left hand of Marsh and competes closely on the glass will be in with a chance of beating them.

DAYLIGHT…

MORE DAYLIGHT…

THE REST

1. Mandurah Magic – The Magic start their preseason trainings before the grand final champions have finished their speeches. For this reason I have doubts putting them this high and wouldn’t be surprised if they follow last season’s pattern of excellent basketball early only to fade out of relevance at the business end of the season. In saying that, Casey Milo’s form continues to be evergreen and until Sunday against Cougars they had managed to play well enough to beat the teams they should do on paper, plus they still have an import to come in and Magic have managed to play this card well in recent years.
2. Kalamunda Eastern Suns – It could perhaps be said I’m a touch biased on this one but I still think they will finish the season in the mix. They lost close games with Magic and Slammers without imports and since their arrival they have beaten Cougars and lost a one possession game to the Flames in Rockingham. Now with a full team the Suns are eight deep, have enough size not to be pushed around, multiple ball handling options and some talented young players. They don’t do a great job running the on-ball screen / hand-off continuity yet but will be able to score enough points on most weeks to compete. The problem they still need to solve is either defining a clear defensive system or getting the players to adhere to it consistently.
3. Perry Lakes Hawks – At the end of 2014 I thought things looked dire for the Hawks. They had fallen out of form horribly, didn’t seem to be enjoying their basketball, three of their key guards sustained long term injuries that would run into next season and had several post players who were retiring or travelling in 2015. CJ has recruited exceptionally in the offseason; firstly by adding Pisconeri but more dramatically by solving their point guard woes and adding Lauren Jeffers. Honestly that last sentence is one I didn’t think I would ever type and I’ve always had mixed feelings on her PG skills. Even so I’ve never questioned her talent and often wondered what she could do with the right teammates and coach as she is fast, has the ability to drive and draw fouls (especially on the right to left crossover) and make free throws, but this was always undone by poor finishing against disciplined defence and such a high turnover rate. However, Hawks seems to be a great fit for her and there is no doubt her ability to carry the ball end to end against any defender in the league has solved a lot of problems for them.
4. South West Slammers – They look to be dramatically improved from last season and will be a finals team and tough first round match up for one of the big three. They have one of the few coaches in the league that is prepared to mix things up but also see the intrinsic adjustments needed to get them over the line, plus he is genuinely entertaining to watch on the sideline. Patricia Bright is coming of a long lay-off at the end of her European season so will build form as the season progresses and Deanna McCormick is extremely quick and can handle the ball in both hands. Depth in scoring options is a bit of an issue, Kate Fielding is flashy but can play inefficiently and scores the ball only when shooting in volume (FG% 29.8, TO’s 3.3 this season and 31.9 with 4.0 career). That leaves Donovan and Bastow, who I’m a big fan of, one or both of them need to have big games for them to score enough points to get over the line most nights.
5. Perth Redbacks – I confess I haven’t watched Redbacks so far this season but from all reports they are far better coached this season and their results and stats seem to reflect this. The word is they play hard and are working to win games not make friends. Gabby Clayton has had a bigger than I expected impact averaging 16 points and 5 rebounds but they won’t have a true believer out of me until they beat teams between 5^th and 9^th and establish themselves in the top eight. If they can do this they will have come a long way from where they were 12 months ago, maybe Eagles could seek some advice for their program rather than just change coaches every year.
6. Cockburn Cougars – Have made a better than expected start to the season in 2015. Smith started the season strongly with massive games in rounds one and two and two player of the week awards. It is also worth an extra five to ten points a game in my opinion having the coach on the court and next to the officials at all time to “guide” the way the game is called. Loberg seems to be getting better each week and I could see them scraping into the play-offs ahead of either Redbacks or Slammers. They work tremendously hard without the ball to help each other and protect the keyway, sometimes when you pause film you can see all five defenders collapsed in. It’s a good strategy to perform well this season but won’t trouble any of the quality teams who have one of or both the ability to make from the perimeter or the size to collect rebounds and receiver spot scores inside anyway.
7. Lakeside Lightning – Well I made a mistake in the preseason selecting this team to still be in the finals. Losing their import on opening night was a cruel blow but the lack of depth and development of junior female players at the club in recent years is really highlighted. Courtney Byrnes looks in solid form this season but most of the time and space she has been afforded in recent years has been taken away because opposition defences focus solely on her. Ashley Grant is a talent, can score and rebound but her performances vary widely from week to week and outside of that nobody else is stepping up as a genuine WSBL player. Megan Craig has now played three games in their line-up and should be settling in to their system. She is a 6’7” New Zealand born post and I’m sure they are hoping she can be a presence inside and help move their season in a positive direction.
8. Stirling Senators – 2015 has quickly got away from the Stirling Senators. Cassie Bates hasn’t shown she can score and create to the usual level required of an import guard despite running the floor well and being steady defensively. Amber Land is in strong form but is left to carry the load on her own, Berryman and Walkers numbers are down from 2014 and nobody else looks threatening. Just like Suns I can’t get any handle on what their defensive system seems to be, and I watched Slammers grind them down at home with no noticeable changes there. I like the box set they run offensively which results in Walker or Land flashing into the paint from the weak side but outside of that all the paddling the ball around the perimeter (yes I’m aware my teams have done that in the past on occasions) and go nowhere on-balls don’t make any sense to me. I think Senators is an up and coming club, with venue expansion, junior numbers increasing and their WABL program improving, however their WSBL program sits in an interesting position at the moment, they have a very large squad with a heap of D-League level girls but without any that appear future WSBL starters.
9. East Perth Eagles – I said yes in buzzer beaters that they would win a game in 2015 but that was based on my instinct of “someone will have an off day and surely they will” more than any real logic. The opportunities for them to do this look limited, maybe Lakeside if Courtney Byrnes didn’t play, Cougars on a night without Smith, Redbacks without Clayton, and Senators on any night. Steph Jones provides great leadership and development around the club but her form has continued to dip from the near league MVP levels it was in 2012.

I hope you enjoyed the read, these are my opinions only and I’m sure many of you won’t agree with some, most or all of them. I encourage you to compare it to what you think and I hope it starts a little conversation or discussion about our league.

Well that’s enough typing for me for blog number one, I wouldn’t want to give anyone the impression that I miss coaching in the league or that I’m not a super interesting person with a variety of interests that don’t include basketball. I promise next week’s edition won’t be quite so long. If you have any suggestions, questions or comments for my blog, topics, segments, team news or discussion for the SBL Slam radio show feel free to email them through to craigmansfield@me.com, the more we receive the happier we are.

Enjoy the weekend’s games everyone!

CM

Article by Craig Mansfield

Photo by Grant Lauterbach