Positions 6-8:

 

Morphett Vale – currently in sixth spot with 18 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 17 – Happy Valley (home)

Round 18 – Brighton (home)

Round 19 – Flagstaff Hill (away)

Round 20 – Reynella (home)

The Vikings & Bombers should win their matches over the Emus, though there is the chance of an upset, mainly the Brighton game with Valley looking unstoppable.

They then finish off their season against the Flagstaff Hill and Reynella, both sides behind them on the ladder. The Falcons are likely to be their biggest challenge, but on their day the Wineflies could cause an upset.

The Emus may also have a say in the shape of the final four, however their top eight spot is yet to be guaranteed.

Worst case scenario is no wins & four losses to go to 18 points.

Best case scenario is three wins & one loss to go to 24 points.

 

Flagstaff Hill – currently in seventh spot with 16 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 17 – Brighton (away)

Round 18 – Morphettville Park (away)

Round 19 – Morphett Vale (home)

Round 20 – Happy Valley (away)

The Falcons got the all important win over the Wineflies in round 16 to keep them ahead on points. They now have a very tough draw to end the season.

The Falcons are unlikely to the Vikings in the final round.

They must win over both the Wineflies and the Emus to have a chance of a finals berth.

A win over either Brighton or Morphettville Park will certainly help their finals cause and is not entirely out of the question

Worst case scenario is four straight losses to stay on 16 points.

Best case scenario is three wins & one loss to go to 22 points, a slight upgrade on last assessment.

 

 

Cove – currently in eighth spot with 16 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 17 – Noarlunga (home)

Round 18 – Christies Beach (away)

Round 19 – Aldinga (home)

Round 20 – Port Noarlunga (away)

Cove did the deed over Lonsdale and should do the same in round 19 over the Sharks.

Cove will feel confident going in to the game against Christies Beach, though it won’t be as easy as their round four clash this year.

Noarlunga and Port Noarlunga loom as their biggest challenges for the remainder of the season. The Shoes should beat the Cobras this weekend but the Cockle-Divers match is certainly up for grabs.

Worst case scenario is one win & three losses to go to 18 points.

Best case scenario is three wins & one loss to go to 22 points, another slight upgrade.

 

 

 

Reynella – currently in ninth spot with 15 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 17 – Port Noarlunga (away)

Round 18 – Noarlunga (away)

Round 19 – Brighton (home)

Round 20 – Morphett Vale (away)

Reynella’s loss to the Falcons will cost them deeply in the run to the finals as it was their best chance for a win.

They will play Port Noarlunga this weekend which they could win given their result earlier this year

Matches between the Wineflies and Emus are always 50/50 and the round 20 match up could decide Reynella’s fate.

Games against the Shoes and Bombers are likely to be losses, though they pushed the Shoes in round 4 and lost by just five points.

Worst case scenario is four straight losses to stay on 15 points.

Best case scenario is three wins & one loss to go to 21 points.

 

 

Edwardstown – currently in tenth spot with 14 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 17 – Hackham (home)

Round 18 – Happy Valley (away)

Round 19 – Lonsdale Lions (away)

Round 20 – Morphettville Park (home)

Edwardstown picked up the as expected win over Aldinga and should do so again over Hackham this coming weekend.

After a likely loss to the Vikings, unless Valley rest most of their senior squad, they have another easy game against the Lions.

They then finish up against the Roos and may cause an upset there, but I wouldn’t be betting on it.

Worst case scenario is two wins & two losses to go to 18 points.

Best case scenario is three wins & one loss to go to 20 points.

 

 

 

Christies Beach – currently in eleventh spot with 13 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 17 – Bye

Round 18 – Cove (home)

Round 19 – Marion (away)

Round 20 – Aldinga (home)

As expected, the Vikings were too strong for the Saints last weekend and they now head in to a bye.

The Saints best chance for an upset win is against Cove and will need to be at their peak to pull it off. The Cobras won their round four meeting by 84 points but the Saints have come a long way since then and won’t be lightly pushed aside.

The Saints should defeat the Rams and the Sharks to finish off the season strongly.

Worst case scenario is two wins & one loss to go to 17 points.

Best case scenario is three wins & no loss to go to 19 points.

 

 

In summary, Morphett Vale has the best run to the finals of those currently in the lower part of the top eight.

Cove is now back in the eight courtesy of the Falcons v Wineflies match up and are well placed to pick up two more wins over the next four weeks.

Flagstaff Hill’s matches leave them in danger of missing finals action and they need to be on top of their game for the last four weeks.

Reynella’s draw probably sees them miss the eight and Edwardstown and Christies Beach would both have to pull off an upset to dislodge either Cove or Flagstaff Hill.

 

Positions 1 -5:

 

Happy Valley – currently in first spot with 25 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 17 – Morphett Vale (away)

Round 18 – Edwardstown (home)

Round 19 – Morphettville Park (away)

Round 20 – Flagstaff Hill (home)

The Emus have had a late season surge but you would think the Vikings would get over them in round 17, especially after their 70 point win in round 8.

The Towns form of late against top sides has been poor and they won’t be a match for the Vikings.

The Roos are their toughest challenge in the last five rounds with the round 9 match only decided by 18 points in favour of the Vikings

The Falcons came close to beating their nearest rival but went down by 11 points. They won’t be a push over, but it is hard to go past the Vikings in this one.

Worst case scenario is two wins & two losses to move to 29 points to win the minor premiership.

Best case scenario is four straight wins to move to 33 points and clinch the minor premiership.

 

Noarlunga – currently in second spot with 22 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 17 – Cove (away)

Round 18 – Reynella (home)

Round 19 – Port Noarlunga (home)

Round 20 – Brighton (away)

After defeating the Roos last round they have shot up to second spot.

The Shoes should defeat the Cobras and the Wineflies in the easiest of their four games remaining.

The Cockle-Divers defeated the Shoes early in the year and this is another 50/50 game.

The Shoes upset reigning premier Brighton early in the season and will have a very tough game against them to finish off the minor round.

Worst case scenario is two wins & two losses to move to 26 points.

Best case scenario is four straight wins to move to 30 points and perhaps be top two.

 

 

Brighton – currently in third spot with 20 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 17 – Flagstaff Hill (home)

Round 18 – Morphett Vale (away)

Round 19 – Reynella (away)

Round 20 – Noarlunga (home)

The Falcons won their round eight encounter but haven’t been as potent since, but they may cause some trouble for the Bombers.

The Bombers should defeat both the Emus and the Wineflies for the second time this year.

The Shoes took the points in round two in a close game and their round 20 match will be another beauty that could go either way.

Worst case scenario is two wins & two losses to move to 24 points.

Best case scenario is four straight wins to move to 28 points.

 

 

Morphettville Park – currently in fourth spot with 20 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 17 – Lonsdale Lions (away)

Round 18 – Flagstaff Hill (home)

Round 19 – Happy Valley (home)

Round 20 – Edwardstown (away)

The loss to the Shoes saw the Roos fall to fourth and are now on the same number of points as fifth placed Port Noarlunga.

The Roos should make short work of the Lions and defeat the Towns for the second time this year.

Flagstaff Hill only lost to the Roos by 27 points but I believe that the Roos are better now than in round four and should win again.

The Vikings will be their biggest match in the last five rounds and the Roos got within 3 goals earlier in the year. I would still expect the Vikings to win.

Worst case scenario is two wins & two losses to move to 24.

Best case scenario is three wins & one loss to move to 26 points.

 

 

 

 

Port Noarlunga – currently in fifth spot with 20 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 17 – Reynella (home)

Round 18 – Aldinga (away)

Round 19 – Noarlunga (away)

Round 20 – Cove (home)

Reynella took the chocolates in round 8 with a seventeen point win and will be eager to repeat the dose in a danger game for Port.

The Cockle-Divers should pick up an easy win against the Sharks in round 18.

Cross-town rivals, the Shoes are their toughest task in the last five matches and are the only top four side that they will face. The Cockle-Divers handed the Shoes a 25 point loss and will be keen to repeat the dose.

They only defeated the Cobras by five points in round two and this is another danger game for them and may decide their double chance hopes.

Worst case scenario is one win & three losses to move to 22 points and maybe fall behind the Emus on the ladder.

Best case scenario is four straight wins to move to 28 points and secure a double chance.

 

Note: That the best case and worst case scenarios have been based on the season thus far and excluded the possibility of extraordinary results such as Aldinga (winless in 2012) defeating anyone or any of the sides below fifth spot defeating a team fifth or above. Whilst these could happen, you’d be a brave person to pick it.