Positions 6-8:

 

Morphett Vale – currently in sixth spot with 18 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 18 – Brighton (home)

Round 19 – Flagstaff Hill (away)

Round 20 – Reynella (home)

The Bombers should win their match over the Emus, especially after the hiding Happy Valley gave Morphett Vale.

They then finish off their season against the Flagstaff Hill and Reynella, both sides behind them on the ladder. The Falcons are likely to be their biggest challenge, but on their day the Wineflies could cause an upset.

The Emus’ top eight spot is yet to be guaranteed and must win their last two games.

Worst case scenario is no wins & three losses to stay on 18 points.

Best case scenario is two wins & one loss to go to 22 points.

 

Flagstaff Hill – currently in seventh spot with 16 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 18 – Morphettville Park (away)

Round 19 – Morphett Vale (home)

Round 20 – Happy Valley (away)

The Falcons are unlikely to the Vikings in the final round.

They must win their game against the Emus to have a chance of a finals berth.

Following their loss to Brighton, defeating Morphettville Park will certainly help their finals cause and is not entirely out of the question

Worst case scenario is three straight losses to stay on 16 points.

Best case scenario is two wins & one loss to go to 20 points.

 

 

Edwardstown – currently in eighth spot with 16 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 18 – Happy Valley (away)

Round 19 – Lonsdale Lions (away)

Round 20 – Morphettville Park (home)

Edwardstown again picked up the as expected win over this time over Hackham to put the club back inside the top eight.

Their big test comes this week against the Vikings and it is unlikely that they will win this one.

They should pick up the two premiership points against Lonsdale in round 19.

They then finish up against the Roos and may cause an upset there, but I wouldn’t be betting on it.

Worst case scenario is one win & two losses to go to 18 points.

Best case scenario is two wins & one loss to go to 20 points.

 

 

 

Cove – currently in ninth spot with 16 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 18 – Christies Beach (away)

Round 19 – Aldinga (home)

Round 20 – Port Noarlunga (away)

Cove will feel confident going in to the game against Christies Beach, despite their loss to Noarlunga and the improvement of the Saints since their last meeting.

They should have no problems defeating the Sharks.

Port Noarlunga now looms as their biggest challenges for the remainder of the season. The Cobras could pull off an upset against the Cockle-Divers.

Worst case scenario is one win & two losses to go to 18 points.

Best case scenario is three wins & no loss to go to 22 points.

 

 

 

Reynella – currently in tenth spot with 15 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 18 – Noarlunga (away)

Round 19 – Brighton (home)

Round 20 – Morphett Vale (away)

After losses to Flagstaff Hill and Port Noarlunga over the last two weeks, the road to the finals is now very tough for Reynella.

They will need to win at least one of their games over the next two weeks and this week’s match against Noarlunga is the most likely given they pushed the Shoes in round 4 and lost by just five points.

Matches between the Wineflies and Emus are always 50/50 and the round 20 match up could decide Reynella’s fate.

Worst case scenario is three straight losses to stay on 15 points.

Best case scenario is two wins & one loss to go to 19 points.

 

 

 

Christies Beach – currently in eleventh spot with 13 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 18 – Cove (home)

Round 19 – Marion (away)

Round 20 – Aldinga (home)

Still mathematically possible but should they make the finals, it could be said to be a football miracle.   They will be relying heavily on results of other games going their way.

The Saints best chance for an upset win is against Cove this weekend and will need to be at their peak to pull it off. The Cobras won their round four meeting by 84 points but the Saints have come a long way since then and won’t be lightly pushed aside.

The Saints should defeat the Rams and the Sharks to finish off the season strongly.

Worst case scenario is two wins & one loss to go to 17 points.

Best case scenario is three wins & no loss to go to 19 points.

 

 

In summary, Morphett Vale has the best run to the finals of those currently in the lower part of the top eight.

Flagstaff Hill’s matches leave them in danger of missing finals action and they need to be on top of their game for the last four weeks.

Edwardstown can still make the eight with one more certain win. Pulling off an upset would guarantee their finals berth.

Cove’s loss places them outside of the eight; but are well placed to pick up two more wins over the next four weeks.

Reynella’s draw probably sees them miss the eight and Christies Beach would have to pull off an upset and have results fall their way to make the finals.

 

Positions 1 -5:

 

Happy Valley – currently in first spot with 27 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 18 – Edwardstown (home)

Round 19 – Morphettville Park (away)

Round 20 – Flagstaff Hill (home)

The Towns form of late against top sides has been poor and they won’t be a match for the Vikings.

The Roos are their toughest challenge in the last five rounds with the round 9 match only decided by 18 points in favour of the Vikings

The Falcons came close to beating their nearest rival but went down by 11 points. They won’t be a push over, but it is hard to go past the Vikings in this one.

Worst case scenario is two wins & one loss to move to 31 points to win the minor premiership.

Best case scenario is three straight wins to move to 33 points and clinch the minor premiership.

 

Noarlunga – currently in second spot with 24 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 18 – Reynella (home)

Round 19 – Port Noarlunga (home)

Round 20 – Brighton (away)

After defeating the Roos last round they have shot up to second spot.

The Shoes should defeat the Wineflies in the easiest of their three games remaining.

The Cockle-Divers defeated the Shoes early in the year and this is another 50/50 game.

The Shoes upset reigning premier Brighton early in the season and will have a very tough game against them to finish off the minor round.

Worst case scenario is one win & two losses to move to 26 points.

Best case scenario is three straight wins to move to 30 points and perhaps be top two.

 

 

Brighton – currently in third spot with 22 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 18 – Morphett Vale (away)

Round 19 – Reynella (away)

Round 20 – Noarlunga (home)

Brighton got the win over the Falcons, reversing the result from earlier in the year.

The Bombers easier portion of their run home continues and they should defeat both the Emus and the Wineflies for the second time this year.

The Shoes took the points in round two in a close game and their round 20 match will be another beauty that could go either way.

Worst case scenario is two wins & one loss to move to 26 points.

Best case scenario is three straight wins to move to 28 points.

 

 

Morphettville Park – currently in fourth spot with 22 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 18 – Flagstaff Hill (home)

Round 19 – Happy Valley (home)

Round 20 – Edwardstown (away)

The Roos got the win over the Lions and now turn their attention to a rough ride to the finish line.

Flagstaff Hill only lost to the Roos by 27 points but I believe that the Roos are better now than in round four and should win again.

The Vikings will be their biggest match in the last five rounds and the Roos got within 3 goals earlier in the year. I would still expect the Vikings to win.

The Towns will be looking to cause an upset in round 20 they could see them awarded with a finals berth. The Roos got up by 36 points and should win this game also.

Worst case scenario is three straight losses to stay on 22 points.

Best case scenario is two wins & 1 loss to move to 26 points.

 

 

 

 

Port Noarlunga – currently in fifth spot with 22 premiership points.

The run home:

Round 18 – Aldinga (away)

Round 19 – Noarlunga (away)

Round 20 – Cove (home)

The Cockle-Divers should pick up an easy win against the Sharks this weekend.

Cross-town rivals, the Shoes are their toughest task in the last five matches and are the only top four side that they will face. The Cockle-Divers handed the Shoes a 25 point loss and will be keen to repeat the dose.

They only defeated the Cobras by five points in round two and this is another danger game for them and may decide their double chance hopes.

Worst case scenario is one win & two losses to move to 24 points.

Best case scenario is three straight wins to move to 28 points and secure a double chance.

 

Note: That the best case and worst case scenarios have been based on the season thus far and excluded the possibility of extraordinary results such as Aldinga (winless in 2012) defeating anyone or any of the sides below fifth spot defeating a team fifth or above. Whilst these could happen, you’d be a brave person to pick it.